# [[Hollywood is dead, but it may yet be reborn]] ###### October 2, 2024 It seems like the nearterm future of the Cinema industry is rather bleak. Going by the numbers, Cinemas took a blow from Covid they could never recover from.[^1] But even before Covid, Cinema ticket sales were in steady decline and many Theater Companies are looking for funding to keep their business running.[^2] Accordingly, the number of US Cinemas is shrinking, especially in rural areas.[^3] [^4] [^5] Alongside with the decline of cinema spaces goes a decline of the cinema as a cultural mass medium.[^6] Repetitive content patterns and simultaneously aging actors and viewers imply that the classic hollywood movie is approaching the end of its lifecycle as a popular medium.[^7] Worries about the future of Cinema as a medium are also reflected in numerous hollywood movies, most prominently "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood". The state of the cinematic medium are reflected in the economic situation of the hollywood movie industry. In mid 2024, US studio spending (for cinema and serial) was down 40% compared to the historic peak in 2020 fueled by the streaming wars.[^8] There is a sad truth for everybody involved in the industry of making movies: it seems likely that the 2010s have been a historic boom phase for high-end Movie and Series production is over, replaced by a significant and potentially self-reinforcing decline of production volumes affecting everything down the line.[^9] The LA filmmakers Subreddit reflects the general sentiment I percieve in the industry: everybody is struggling, everybody wonders if they should stay on board or move on to a more promising occupation. **How could it come that far? There is an important point to be made about the influence of tech companies and financial partners on the hollywood ecosystem. Interest in hyperscaling growth and short term revenues led to an inflated streaming economy that stopped to be viable as soon as interest rates went up. Also - and maybe more importantly- there is a change in taste going on. While older generations appreciated Cinema and TV as major corner stones of pop culture, it seems this unique positioning is disappearing. Holistic "Watercooler Talk" trends like the ones induced by a movie everybody had seen seem to disappear, giving way to a more fragmented landscape of smaller vibes shared in insider circles. Younger demographics may consume a streamed movie, but it will just be one amongst many sources of content consumed over the day, often simultaneously. And of course there is the fact that the US (and therefore Hollywood) are loosing cultural influence in general. While "the West" may still be the hegemonic cultural perspective, it becomes more and more obvious, that many other regions of the world are motivated and able to develope and promote their own cultural perspectives. **How to move on?** To me, this currently seems like an era is ending. While neither Cinemas nor high-end TV Series will disappear anytime soon, it seems that we are past the "golden" times. Lev Manovich that Cinema was the medium of the 20th century, while the 21st century would give way to new interfaces. Maybe what the hollywood industry is experiencing at the moment is the realisation of this prediction, slightly delayed by the low-interest boom of the last decade. I currently sense a certain disillusionment within myself and with peers. It seems like the cinematic suspension of disbelief everybody involved in the industry has helped to create was enabled by another suspension of disbelief towards the nature and the future of this industry. Interestingly, I sense some similarities within this train of thought to the kind of disillusion the design industry is struggling with since its boom phase in the 2000s.[^10] In a way this makes me hopeful for the craft of filmmaking and the associated industry. The design industry has faced severe disruptions: there are far less design studios left, design universities have lost many students and many designers (including me) have moved on to tangential careers. But at the same time, the craft of design has expanded into new realms and -in my perception- may have gained in relevance what it lost in popularity. Maybe something similar is possible for filmmaking? It is important to remember that Cinema has faced severe disruptions before. And even more important (something Steven Calcote of [Butcherbird](https://butcherbird.com) reminded me of recently): the moving image is still a very young medium - it's still early. At the same time, nostalgia is a popular sentiment both on screen and on set. This could be actually useful. Svetlana Boym coined the term "Reflexive Nostalgia" for a mindset that "accepts the past as a ruin, ‘cherishes shattered fragments of memory’".[^11] I think this is what we should do now: make ourselves at home in the ruins of the old industry to build something useful out of it. [^1]: "Between 2017 and 2019, the worldwide box office consistently hovered around $40 billion annually. However, in 2022 and 2023, it only reached about half that amount, and 2024 is lagging even further behind those already dreary figure." https://www.filmtake.com/distribution/from-blockbusters-to-bust-why-the-film-industry-is-fading-fast/ [^2]: "**Cineworld,** the second-largest cinema chain in the world, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US and has been working to find a solution. **AMC,** the world’s largest movie theater circuit, dodged bankruptcy by a slim margin thanks to investors and nearly acquired theaters from Cineworld. **CGR,** France’s second-largest exhibition chain, announced that it was up for sale, with the process currently underway. (...) The market is in a state of flux and the outcome of these changes will greatly influence its future direction." https://tbco.medium.com/the-future-is-now-6-key-trends-that-will-transform-the-cinema-industry-in-2023-e9feec804e25 [^3]: "The number of theatrical tickets sold in the U.S. has fallen by 38% over the past decade, while ticket prices have increased by 33%. This trend points to fewer high-quality films produced by the remaining studios, resulting in a reduced selection for consumers." https://www.filmtake.com/distribution/from-blockbusters-to-bust-why-the-film-industry-is-fading-fast/ [^4]: "Cinemas and movie screens in the US have contracted in number since the pandemic, falling by about 1% from 2020 to 2022, according to data provided to CNN by Omdia, a London-based analyst and advisory firm. In 2023, the situation worsened, with cinema sites and screen numbers dropping by more than 6%, Omdia data shows." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/03/economy/curious-consumer-independent-cinemas-evolving/index.html [^5]: "Much of the press around theater closings focuses on New York and Los Angeles, but far more poisonous to exhibition is the drip, drip, drip of closures of cinema complexes nationwide. When they’re gone, many people have nowhere to watch current movies other than their homes." https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/american-cities-without-movie-theaters-1234912768/ [^6]: "While theatrical exhibition will continue to exist, its role as the centerpiece of Hollywood is being questioned. The talent migration to television and other formats may become more pronounced as the industry navigates these changes." https://www.filmtake.com/distribution/from-blockbusters-to-bust-why-the-film-industry-is-fading-fast/ [^7]: "The final stages of decline are marked by total market saturation—reaching ridiculous levels. Far more product is churned out than even the core audience can absorb. (...) During the period of decline, the average age of the core fan base gets older. Youngsters may continue to have some interest in the genre, but without the enthusiasm of the old days. (...) Even more ominous, the box office stars start showing their age—and are far too old to lead any movement. They are hired out of desperation, because holding on to old fans is now more important than attracting new ones. (...) As a result, everything about the genre starts to feel stale. The stories were fresher twenty years ago. The lead stars were definitely fresher twenty years ago. The only thing that isn’t stale is the movie popcorn out in the lobby—and even that’s not a sure thing." https://www.honest-broker.com/p/the-6-laws-of-dying-hollywood-franchises [^8]: "[P]roduction in the United States was down about 40% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to peak-TV levels of filming activity during the same period in 2022. For nearly two years, Hollywood has suffered a stark decline in film and TV shoots that has prolonged mass unemployment and [mental health crises](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2024-06-13/how-film-and-tv-workers-can-care-for-their-mental-health-when-jobs-are-scarce) among entertainment workers." https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2024-07-11/production-activity-report-hollywood [^9]: "Here’s my ugly prediction: Hollywood will never make as many movies and TV series as it did a few years ago. (...) All the big spenders (Netflix, Disney, etc.) are cutting back. They don’t really have a choice—their cash flow isn’t strong enough to support those peak levels. And this is now a self-reinforcing trend. The major players can reduce investment because their competitors are doing the same." https://www.honest-broker.com/p/the-slow-painful-death-of-the-socal [^10]: see https://www.artificialocean.net/p/product-design-used-to-be-wizardry [^11]: Boym, S. (2001, p. 49) The Future of Nostalgia. New York: Basic Books.