Expected Agency shapes Future Thinking

# [[Expected Agency shapes Future Thinking]] ###### September 24, 2024 Our expectation of being able to change the future influences how we think about and interact with the future in the present. This is a major driver for the creation of different attitudes towards the future. Scott & Ashby identified four modes of future thinking defined by the extend of expected futures agency.[^1] 1) **Anticipation:** *"What can we expect in X years?"* This is the minimal level of expected agency. Typical Artifacts: *Weather Apps, Finance Forecasts* 2) **Imagination:** *"What would happen if?"* Here we see more agency than on the anticipatory level, but we are still in hypothetical domain. Typical Artifacts: *Renderings of Agencies* 3) **Exploration** "*If X and Y happens, what would be the conseqences for a world Z?*" This mode starts to explore specific possibilities deeper. Typical Artifacts: *Scenarios* 4) **Manipulation** *How would a world Z feel? And what do we learn from this for the present?* With the highest level of agency anticipation, it is possible to start probing possible futures with prototypes. Typical Artifacts: *Experimental Product Release in new Markets* I think this is quite an important framework, because it highlights a specific challenge with future thinking: **the less somebody considers the future to be changeable, the less likely they are to take action in changing it.** It needs dedicated efforts to adress the constraints imposed by percieved lack of agency within organizations and societies. First of all, it is probably about creating awareness for the fact that actual agency is usually bigger than percieved agency. [^1]: Smith, Scott; Ashby, Madeline: [HOW TO FUTURE](https://www.howtofuture.com/), 2020